Here are the hot points from this session, including a case study by American Heart Association.

What is modeling?

• Advanced statistical methods that analyze data which represent & predict future behavior

What can it do?

• Select donors on desired future outcome, not just prior reactions
• Help mail smarter & improve ROI
• Break down into populations & show which groups should be contacted more frequently

Co-op Database:

• Holistic view of philanthropy
• Each organizations history is used to influence the database
• Always make sure security & integrity are maintained

House file modeling:

• Combine co-op with organizations own RFM data
• Donors are scored & ranked from high to low
• Take information & mail to those who are higher – more likely to respond.
• Don’t mail as often to the lower deciles.
• Can identify donors who will upgrade significantly to larger gifts
• Look at age, length of residence, spending volume, # of adults in HH
• Then do thank you at point of acquisition via call or written letter

Mid Level Donor Cultivation Model:

• Group the more responsive donors & larger gift givers
• Treat that group differently to try & get a higher level gift

Sustainer Invitation Model:

• Identify those that are likely to become sustainers or pledge program donors

Acquisition Modeling:

• Zip level on upfront – applied pre merge/purge
• Household level model – applied post merge/purge

Warm Name Conversion Model:

• Gathered from walk, bike, gala or other special event
• People that are most likely to convert to ongoing DM Donors

Creating & Utilizing Profile Models – American Heart Association case study

The Dear Neighbor Program

• Volunteer based
• Mail letters to neighbors & collect donations

What is Profile Model?

• Analyzing a group that exhibits desired behavior & similarities
• Define objectives
• Define target group (i.e. $30+ volunteers)
• Analyze target group to create profile
• Average age, length of residence, income, interests, gender
• Apply model to desired universe & get tiered groups/buckets
• Validation
• Look at target group ($30+ volunteers) & see where they fall in bucket. They should fall in top tier.
• Application
• Let the model do the work

American Heart found that top tier prospects outperformed other prospects by 65%

Refresh models every 6 months – 1 year.

Laura Cox, Sr. Account Executive, Direct Media, Inc.